June Supply & Demand Summary

New Crop:

1. Nary a change, other than ending stocks which were increased 5 as the result of the old crop adjustment;
2. The 20-21 stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 22.5%;
3. The point estimate for producer prices continues at $3.20

Old Crop:

1. Production was lowered 45 million bushels from last month to 13.617 billion;
2. Harvested acres were trimmed by 100 K to 81.3 million and yield was reduced 4/10’s bpa to 167.4;
3. Ethanol grind was lowered 50 mbu to 4.900 bbu as ethanol demand has not recovered quite as quickly as expected;
4. Exports continue to be forecast at 1.775 bbu;
5. Feed/residual use remains estimated at 5.7 bbu;
6. With supply down 45 million and use 50 million lower, ending stocks edged up 5 to 2.103 bbu for a 15.3% stx to use ratio and;
7. The average producer price estimate for 19-20 remains at $3.60 per bushel.

New Crop:

1. No changes on the production and demand sides;
2. 5 mbu lower stocks to 26 mbu as a result of adjustments to 19-20;
3. Stocks to use now at 7.3%;
4. Producer price point estimate remans at $3.20.

Old Crop:

1. Exports increased 10 million to 210, presumably on continued optimism for Chinese buying;
2. Feed/residual use was reduced 5 to 95 mbu;
3. FSI/ethanol grind remains forecast at 70 mbu;
4. Stocks 5 lower at 30 mbu;
5. Stocks to use ratio declines from 9.5% in May to 8% this month and;
6. Producer price point estimate remains at $3.25.

New Crop:

1. No change in estimated crop size which continues at 4.125 billion;
2. Acreage steady at 83.5 million planted/82.8 million harvest with a 49.8 bpa yield;
3. Beginning stocks 5 million larger from above;
4. Crush raised 15 to 2.145 bbu;
5. Seed/residual use steady from last month at 135 mbu;
6. Exports, unchanged at 2.050 billion;
7. Carry-over down 10 from LM to 395;
8. Stocks to use goes from 9.4% to 9.1%;
9. Price forecast unchanged at $8.20;
10. New crop SBM
    1. Production 300 K ST higher than LM’s estimate;
    2. Domestic demand seen 300 K higher at 37.8 million short tons;
    3. Exports steady at 13.1 MST;
    4. Price of 48% SBM steady at $295 per ST;
11. SBO
    1. Beginning stocks up 60;
    2. SBO production 175 higher at 24.86 billion;
    3. Domestic/biodiesel use steady vs LM at 23.0 and 8.0 billion;
    4. Exports raised 100 mil lbs to 2.2 billion;
    5. Average price continues at $.29 per pound.

Old Crop:

1. Production 5 lower at 3.552 bbu;
2. Crush 15 million higher to 2.140 bbu—greater domestic meal demand;
3. Exports reduced 25 due to “greater competition from South America”, no mention of sluggish Chinese buying;
4. Total use 10 lower;
5. Ending stocks were 5 higher from last month at 585 mbu;
6. Stx/use ratio rises from 14.9% LM to 16.3%;
7. Producer price estimate unchanged at $8.50;
8. As for the products,
   1. SBO production increased 110 million to 24.590 billion pounds;
   2. Domestic SBO use was reduced by 100 million pounds, due entirely to smaller expected biodiesel use, now at 7.4 billion;
   3. Exports increased 150 to 2.7 billion;
   4. Ending stocks increased from May by 60 million to 1.940 billion;
   5. Decatur SBO price continues to be estimated at $.2850 per pound
   6. SBM—SBM production increased 350 K ST to 50.323 MST;
   7. Domestic SBM use forecast boosted 400 K to 37.5 million;
   8. Export forecast holds at 13.45 MST and;
   9. Price of 48% protein Decatur SBM eases $5 to $295 per ST.

Winter Wheat Production—20/21

1. Updated survey based estimate pegs new-crop winter wheat production at 1.266 bbu, which was 2% above the avg. trade guess but 3% lower than 2019;
2. Harvested acreage pegged at 24.3 mil, which is unchanged from last month but fractionally below last year. Avg. yield is forecast at 52.1 bpa vs. the May est. of 51.7;
3. HRW forecast at 0.743 bbu vs. avg. guess of 0.720; SRW pegged at 0.298, which is in line with the avg. guess; and White at 0.225 vs. avg. guess of 0.224;
4. Implied Other Spring/Durum production pegged at 0.611 bbu vs. 0.616 for last year.

U.S. All Wheat Supply/Demand—20/21

1. Updated forecast of new-crop puts all wheat production at 1.877 bbu, which is down 2% from 19/20, with total supply down 3% at 3.000 bbu;
2. Usage—Food/seed up 3 mbu vs. 19/20; feed/residual down 35 mil to 100; exports down 15 to 950; total usage of 2.075 bbu is down 2% vs. 19/20;
3. Net result is ending stocks for 20/21 of all wheat are pegged at 0.925 bbu, which was above the average trade guess of 0.901;
4. Average farm price forecast at $4.60 with ending stocks-to-use ratio of 44.6% Note: Wheat-by-class projections for 2020/21 will first be published by the USDA in July.

U.S. All Wheat Supply/Demand—19/20

1. Domestic use unchanged;
2. Exports were lowered 5 million to 965 mbu;
3. Carryout for 19/20 of all wheat was increased 5 mbu to 0.983 bbu, which was 3 million above the average trade guess of 0.980 and;
4. Avg. farm price forecast at $4.60, which is unchanged versus May; stocks-to-use at 46.3% compared to 46.0% in May and 53.0% in 18/19.

1. 20/21 beginning coarse grain stocks down 2.15 from LM to 343.7;
2. 20/21 beginning corn stocks 1.8 MMT lower at 312.9 million;
3. No adjustments to 19-20 competing exporter production; exports steady as well at 108.7 MMT;
4. USDA lowers 19-20 foreign wheat feeding by 1.2 MMT to 138.5; 20-21 1 MMT lower at 133.75;
5. 20-21 Brazil corn crop estimate raised 1 to 107 (101 TY); export steady at 38.0 (35.0 TY);
6. Foreign corn import demand bumped up 350 K to 175.9 MMT, up 7.5 MMT versus 19-20;
7. Competing 20-21 exports unchanged at 111.7, and up 3 MMT versus 19-20;
8. China old crop feed use 1 MMT higher at 186; imports steady at 7 MMT and;
9. China new crop feed consumption also up 1; imports unchanged at 7; ending stocks 2 MMT lower from LM to 198.1 for a 9 MMT drop.

1. 19-20 S AM crop size unchanged from LM at 50 for Argentina and 124.0 for Brazil but, exports for each raised by 1 to 9.0 and 85.0;
2. China 19-20 SB imports increased by 2 to 94.0 and crush increased by 1 MMT to 87.5;
3. No changes to the 20-21 S AM production/export numbers: 53.5/131.0 and 6.5/83.0;
4. China imports unchanged from LM in 20-21 at 96 MMT; crush increased by ½ MMT and;
5. Global ending stocks expected to decline 2.9 MMT in 20-21 to 96.3 million.

1. World production for 20/21 pegged at a record 773.4 MMT, which is up 4.9 MMT compared to May and 9.0 MMT above the 19/20 total;

• • NOTE: With 2020/21 production estimates for some of the major world competitors up significantly from 2019/2020 (e.g. Australia), there appears to be ample export competition for U.S. origin if forecasted production levels are realized;

1. Russia production forecast is unchanged from last month at 77.0 MMT, although the export forecast is up 1.0 MMT to 36.0 MMT (v. 33.5 in 2019/20);
2. Ukraine production forecast is reduced 1.5 MMT to 26.5 MMT—down 9% from the 2019/20 level of 29.2. Exports are forecast at 17.5 MMT, which is down 1.5 MMT from May and down 3.0 MMT compared to 20.5 in 2019/20;
3. Additional decline in European Union production is forecast—141.0 MMT v. 143.0 in May; exports are pegged at 28.5 vs. 28.0 last month (v. 36.5 in 19/20);
4. Canada production estimate is unchanged at 34.0 (32.3 LY), and export forecast is steady at 24.5 MMT (23.0 LY);
5. Australia crop est. is increased 2.0 MMT to 26.0 MMT (15.2 LY), with exports also projected 2.0 MMT higher at 17.0 vs. 9.2 for 19/20;
6. Argentina crop forecast is steady at 21.0 (19.5 LY), and exports forecast at 14.5 vs. 13.5 for 19/20;
7. World ending stocks for 20/21 estimated at a record 316.1 MMT vs. 295.8 for 19/20 and;
8. Ending stock-to-use ratio for 20/21 pegged at 42.0% vs. 41.2% in May and 39.5% for 19/20.

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