October Supply & Demand Summary

Old Crop:

1. Ending stocks were reduced 258 mbu from September to 1.995, reflecting the September 1 stocks report;
2. Exports were increased 13 to 1.778 bbu;
3. Feed/residual use increased 227 million to 5.827 bbu, with the emphasis again, on “residual”;
4. FSI use 17 higher at 6.282 with ethanol grind 3 mbu lower at 4.852 billion;
5. Average produce price point estimate eased $.04 to $3.56/bushel.

New Crop:

1. 19/20 Planted area reduced 1 million to 91.0 million;
2. Harvested area declined 1 million to 82.5 million;
3. Yield reduced 1/10’s to 178.4;
4. Production down 178 mbu to 14.722 bbu;
5. Beginning stocks 258 mbu lower;
6. Feed/residual estimate reduced 50 to 5.775 bbu;
7. FSI use estimate DOWN 50 from LM at 6.475 bbu with ethanol grind 50 million lower at 5.050 bbu;
8. Exports unchanged at 2.325 (China imports continue to be estimated at 7 MMT);
9. Total use down 100 mbu to 14.575 (13.887 LY);
10. The net is a 336 mbu decrease in c/o from LM to 2.167 bbu. The latter is 47 million ABOVE the average trade estimate but futures are being pulled higher by the dwindling soybean carry-out;
11. Average producer price upped $.10 to $3.60.

Old Crop:

1. Planted area increased 200 K to 5.6 million;
2. Harvested acreage also 200 K higher at 5.0 million;
3. Yield up 2/10’s to 74.1;
4. Production increased 13 to 371 mbu;
5. 19/20 usage adjustments:
   1. Feed/residual, up 7 to 97;
   2. Exports, 1 lower to 204;
   3. FSI, unchanged from LM at 75;
   4. Total use increased 6 to 376 with ending stocks 6 lower at 29;
6. Average producer price increased $.04 to $3.34 per bushel;
7. 20/21 use:
   1. Feed/residual, no change—70 versus 97 LY;
   2. FSI, no change at 40, 35 less than LY;
   3. Exports, no change at 260 and up 54 from LY;
8. Ending 20/21 stocks up 7 from LM to 30 mbu
9. Producer price a dime higher at $3.60.

New Crop:

1. A BIG August bump in the milo yield, 9.1 bpa to 76.6;
2. Production rises 44 million to 371;
3. Feed/residual unchanged at 70;
4. FSI use increased unchanged from LM at 45;
5. Exports increased by 40 to 260 mbu;
6. Ending stocks increase 4 to 26;
7. Price impact: down $.25 to $3.10.

1. 19/20 planted area unchanged at 76.1; harvested area 100 K lower at 74.9 and yield, steady at 47.4;
2. Production unchanged from LM at 3.552 bbu;
3. 19/20 Use revisions:
   1. Crush 5 higher at 2.165 bbu;
   2. Exports down 4 to 1.676;
   3. Seed/Residual, 61 mbu swing in the former to +16; seed use 1 lower;
4. Old crop supply was reduced 1 million. With the usage adjustments, ending stocks were 52 million lower as reflected in the Grain Stocks Report;
5. 20/21:
   1. Planted, 700 K lower; harvested, 700 K lower; yield unchanged; o Crush, unchanged at 2.180 bbu;
   2. Exports, up 75 to 2.200 bbu;
   3. Imports, no change at 15 mbu;
   4. Seed/residual, 2 lower at 136 mbu;
6. Stocks fall 170 from September to 290, 73 mbu BELOW the trade average
7. Average producer soybean price for 20/21 increased $.55 to $9.80;
8. SBM 19-20: USDA reduced 19/20 domestic use 125 K ST; increased exports 100. 19/20 domestic use revised
   down to 37.75 MST; exports now at 13.9 MST;
9. U.S. SBM imports were increased 20 K to 620 K ST;
10. Average 19/20 SBM Prx slips $.50 to $299.50;
11. SBM 20-21: Only change from LM was a $20 per ST boost in price to $335/ST
12. SBO: Old crop beginning stocks unchanged from LM
    1. Supply down 55 million pounds on smaller crush/like decrease in output;
    2. Dom use unchanged from LM although biodiesel consumption was increased 100 million pounds
       to 7.85 billion;
    3. Exports increased 50 million to 2.8 billion pounds;

20/21 SBO

1. Beg stx, down 105 mil lbs;
2. Production, no change;
3. Imports, steady at 350 mil lbs;
4. Supply, unchanged from LM;
5. Use
   1. Domestic use steady at 23 billion although biodiesel was raised 100 million to 8.1 billion pounds;
   2. Exports increased 100 million to 8.1 billion
6. Ending stocks 105 mil lbs lower at 1.755 bil lbs;

Prices

1. 19/20 average revised 17 points higher to $.2967;
2. 20/21 forecast increased 50 points to $.3250.

U.S. All Wheat Supply/Demand—19/20

1. Updated production estimates from the USDA Small Grains Summary report were incorporated in this report— all wheat prod dn 18 mbu from Sep WASDE to 1.962 bbu;
2. Beginning stocks increased 8 mbu per revised June 1 stocks in USDA Grain Stocks report;
3. Imports lowered 15 mbu to 120 mbu;
4. Total supply of 3.161 bbu is dn 26 mbu from last month but up 1.3% vs. last year;
5. Usage—Food and seed use unchanged vs. last month; feed/residual lowered 30 mbu to 140; and exports down 25 mbu to 0.850 bbu. Total use of 2.118 bbu is up 3.9% v. 18/19;
6. Ending stocks of all wheat are forecast at 1.043 bbu, which was above the average trade guess of 1.011; average farm price forecast at $4.70 vs. $4.80 in September. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 49.2% compared to 46.% last month but below 53.0% in 18/19.

U.S. Supply/Demand by Class—19/20

1. Hard Red Winter
   1. Production decreased 7 mbu per Small Grains Summary report;
   2. Domestic use is lowered 11 mbu to 483 mbu;
   3. Exports forecast at 380 mbu, down 15 million vs. September;
   4. Carry-out projected at 491 mbu, up 29 million vs. last month;
   5. Stocks-to-use forecast at 56.9% vs. 52.0% in September and 70.5% for 18/19
2. Soft Red Winter
   1. Production lowered 18 mbu per Small Grains Summary report;
   2. Domestic use reduced 15 mbu from last month to 192;
   3. Exports forecast at 100 mbu—steady vs. September;
   4. Ending stocks forecast at 110 million, down 3 mbu vs. last month;
   5. Stocks-to-use estimated at 37.7% vs. 36.8% in September and 46.9% for 18/19 Spring

Hard Red Spring

1. Production decreased 7 mbu per Small Grains Summary report;
2. Imports lowered 10 mbu to 55 mbu;
3. Domestic use unchanged from last month at 314 mbu;
4. Exports projected at 255 mbu, down 10 mbu vs. last month;
5. Carry-out projected at 308 mbu vs. 317 in September;
6. Stocks-to-use pegged at 54.1% vs. 54.7% last month and 45.1% for last year.

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